Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.083886 2.204559 2.331496 2.475482 2.634902 2.806737 3.006939
2025-04-27 1.935152 2.105829 2.294236 2.519547 2.784255 3.088744 3.470559
2025-05-04 1.837588 2.039580 2.270349 2.557297 2.910131 3.337728 3.908293
2025-05-11 1.735926 1.954346 2.210210 2.537785 2.954965 3.482043 4.222723
2025-05-18 1.655383 1.885537 2.160794 2.522000 2.996210 3.617998 4.534644
2025-05-25 1.585212 1.823285 2.113027 2.501364 3.024928 3.734690 4.828622
2025-06-01 1.523826 1.767446 2.068464 2.479491 3.047021 3.840271 5.115512
2025-06-08 1.479709 1.730284 2.044503 2.481527 3.099604 3.991120 5.489952
2025-06-15 1.449204 1.708363 2.038185 2.505556 3.183132 4.193511 5.977386
2025-06-22 1.398441 1.657622 1.990828 2.469145 3.174783 4.252438 6.225330
2025-06-29 1.350693 1.608736 1.943437 2.429433 3.157675 4.294280 6.446682
2025-07-06 1.301295 1.555778 1.888185 2.375274 3.114374 4.288560 6.575777
2025-07-13 1.281218 1.541582 1.885734 2.397953 3.192249 4.494117 7.162998
2025-07-20 1.268306 1.536332 1.895092 2.438043 3.300135 4.763109 7.945245
2025-07-27 1.254748 1.529458 1.901526 2.473606 3.402899 5.035048 8.808833
2025-08-03 1.225151 1.499400 1.873679 2.455127 3.413961 5.137429 9.296226
2025-08-10 1.198449 1.472427 1.849099 2.440186 3.429493 5.249475 9.839393
2025-08-17 1.171931 1.444847 1.822545 2.420648 3.435334 5.342534 10.359434
2025-08-24 1.146523 1.418054 1.796135 2.399935 3.437397 5.427783 10.884919
2025-08-31 1.128902 1.401692 1.784363 2.401863 3.479708 5.601591 11.741498
2025-09-07 1.117939 1.394387 1.785581 2.424618 3.561259 5.870407 13.027244
2025-09-14 1.092061 1.365019 1.752866 2.390134 3.533919 5.893509 13.465324
2025-09-21 1.066473 1.335478 1.719063 2.352504 3.498376 5.894306 13.826466